Stellar Lumen recently has been an Altcoin turning heads as it is rapidly gaining adoption and increased the speed of scaling. Here we’ll be taking a look at the fundamental events that are affecting the price of the pair.
A Focus on Previous and Upcoming Events in the Stellar Community
31 October 2018 CoinEx Listing
Via the CoinEx voting feature, CoinEx listed Stellar (XLM) on October 31st. This event coincides with a bullish accumulation price action pattern formed on the same date, led to the current 25.46% price rally.
26 October 2018 Starlight Preview Release
Starlight Payment channels on Stellar did not positively affect the exchange rate of the pair, as the pair formed a bearish accumulation pattern on the same day, pushing price further south by another 2.7%.
23 October 2018 Money 2020
Despite the excitement of @JedMcCaleb speaking at Money 2020 USA on Tuesday, October 23, speculators did not interpret this to favour the Lumen(XLM). The date confirmed a bearish breakdown of bullish accumulation, making a 10.3% price decline.
22 October 2018 IBM Blockchain World Wire
IBM Blockchain World Wire launches on the Stellar Network to clear and settle cross-border payments in seconds. The BWW adopts digital currency on the Stellar to facilitate international settlements between banks. Upon the announcement date, price triggered a spinning top pattern which stands for indecision in the market; however, in the coming days, a bearish breakdown pattern decided the short-term direction of the price.
Potential Triggers for November
08 November 2018 Biztranex Listing
Stellar (XLM) was listed on BIZTRANEX EXCHANGE on November 8th, 2018 as announced on the @BiztranexGlobal exchange twitter page. This led to a bearish closing day forming a bearish accumulation pattern. This event became favourable for the XLMUSD pair considering that the pair closed above the bearish accumulation resistance.
November 2018 XLM Airdrop for Blockchain.com Users
Blockchain.com, a popular cryptocurrency wallet provider will be staging an XLM Airdrop for its user. This is done to promote their wallet as well as getting the end user a low-risk way of getting into the cryptocurrency space.
09 December 2018 Stellar Activity Fork 2:1 and XLA Airdrop for XLM Holders
Stellar Activity a new cryptocurrency has been forked off the Stellar-Lumen network. Following the hard fork, all Lumen (XLM) holders will get the XLA for free. The advantages promised by the Stellar-Activity development team can be found on their website stellar-activity.org.
Out of the 100 billion XLA that will be issued, XLA of about 60 billion will be airdropped among XLM holders. We believe that the hard fork date among other fundamental reasons is what is currently fueling the bullish trend of the XLMUSD as holders are promised free XLA on the launch date.
Quarter 4 2018 SDEX
Based on an announcement on the stellar.org website, a team of veterans were recruited in 2017 to develop a front-end for Stellar’s decentralized exchange named SDEX. According to the development team at Stellar, the Stellar Decentralized Exchange will be the world-class front-end that the underlying technology has long deserved.
The release date for the SDEX is tentative and Lumen enthusiasts, as well as the entire cryptocurrency community, are looking forward to clues of this event.
Quarter 4 2018 Lightning Network
Just like Bitcoin, and Litecoin, that launched off-chain payments as a solution for longer block time and increasing fees, Stellar revealed a first test demo for “Starlight”, the Lightning Network for the Lumens cryptocurrency.
According to a statement made on the official stellar.org blog page: “We’ve noted the market demand for more private channel transactions on Stellar, and we will integrate Lightning in 2018.” There is so much optimism towards the launch of the lightning network, and the final implementation will bring a huge volatility to the exchange rate of the XLMUSD.
Quarter 4 2018 Lightning Network Livenet
From the stellar.org release timeline, the Lightning Network on Stellar livenet is scheduled for December 1. Jed McCaleb, Stellar’s creator, explored Lightning way back in 2015. This date is a significant date for Stellar as traders and speculators will be looking out for the price action patterns that could give clues to the exchange rate trend direction.
A success of this implementation will prove positive for Lumens and consequently a bullish trend.
Potential Risks for November and into December
From the above XLMUSD chart, the bullish accumulation pattern presents a long trading opportunity. This puts our stop Loss at 0.1664, a 39.14% risk, as against an 80.92% projection, making up a 2.01% risk to reward ratio.
Technological Adoption on the Stellar Network
From Stellar’s 2018 roadmap, the number 5 cryptocurrency according to coinmarketcap.com is already an ICO launching platform, as Mobius community recently succeeded in launching their MOBI token sale on the Stellar. More companies are opting for Stellar over Ethereum as they are Scalable, cheap, and fast.
A successful launch of SDEX will make it an exchange of choice for all launched tokens on the network.
A very significant announcement is the Blockchain World Wire (BWW) by IBM, which is a payment network that’s recently launched out of its Beta stage. Compared to traditional corresponding banks, this has an advantage of transferring funds at a fraction of the cost and time.
The impact of the BWW on the exchange rate of XLMUSD is a long-term on as project more cyclical movement on the daily chart, but more consecutive bars on the daily chart.
Updates and Milestones Accomplished on the Stellar Network
A major update and milestone to the Stellar Network is the Lightning network, as wells the SDEX exchange. A successful launch of the lightning will further reduce transaction fees as well as improve network performance.