Litecoin (LTC) is nearing towards its mining supply halving on August 5th, 2019, pushing traders to speculate on its future value. In this guide, we offer a detailed explanation of LTC technology, what exactly is halving, and if the price will rise. Then, we present a list of the best Litecoin halving 2019 price predictions by reputable investors. Lastly, we provide our own take on the situation and how you can profit from the LTC’s supply halving.
What is Litecoin Halving?
To understand Litecoin halving, we need to define what crypto is and how its blockchain functions. Litecoin, often called Bitcoin’s silver cousin, is a hard fork of the BTC designed to provide faster transactions. The blockchain uses practically the same cryptography and codes by its older version. Thus, the same equipment can mine it as a result. Miners create blocks by calculating extensive mathematical equations. They also verify payments by imbuing them into those blocks.
The main difference with Bitcoin is the release time of blocks (only 2.5 minutes) and is regarded as much faster. However, everything else is very similar to BTC, halving included. LTC has a limited overall supply of 84 million coins. Currently, it has a circulating supply of over 64 million coins. Each new block brings in a small fraction of coins from the reserves. Thus, halving occurs as to prolong the supply.
Miners compete with hash rates and those with highest mining power winning the block awards. However, since supply is limited, halving of block awards is necessary for miners to keep their revenue streams going. The halving occurs once the mining supply reaches 840,000 LTC blocks. The last halving happened in 2015, cutting the block size from 50 to 25 LTCs. New halving for this year would drag the block supply down to 12.5 LTC.
Can Halving Affect the LTC price?
Classic supply and demand markets are clear – at least when it comes to theory. By slowing down the supply while keeping the demand the same, the price of the goods would increase to leverage the dysfunction between them. Thus, many expect the price to rise up, doubling the value of the coin as the supply is cut in half.
However, we need to talk in the context of crypto markets where industry trends are not so straightforward. Litecoin is a digital coin does not base its value on physical goods. Rather, the market works out its value and is competing with other cryptocurrencies. As such, demand and supply theories do not exactly work. It all depends on participants and whether they would deem the halving to be an interesting event.
If interest peaks for only a short amount of time, the price would correct itself back to the original levels. Additionally, crypto space is known to be led by Bitcoin. If BTC experiences a downfall of its value, so shall Litecoin.
Litecoin Halving 2015 Analysis
Apart from development, the best way to check how halving might impact the price is to look into the past. The nearest date from August 2019 is the same month but in 2015. Results back then provide some interesting facts about the process. However, the situation back then is quite different from what s going on now. There were fewer coins, adoption was almost non-existent, and there was a much smaller number of exchanges that offer LTC pairs.
Additionally, the Litecoin itself grew tremendously in fame and in terms of trading transactions per day. However, it would be wise to seek out information regarding the last halving of the coin in August 2015. As the CoinMarketCap’s chart shows below, the regular demand and supply laws do not apply for cryptos.
As seen from the snapshot above, LTC’s value hovered around $1.80 until mid-June 2015. The red mark signifies the period when value spiked sharply, mainly due to the BTC’s growth.
Additionally, using the data from other analysis, it seems that miners, HODLers, and traders bought up quantities before the halving. As a result, the price spiked during the following 30 days, growing to $8.70 per LTC. Once the buyout finalized, the price went down sharply the very next day to $4.30.
More importantly, until August 2015, the value of LTC steadily decreased, falling at the lowest point at the day of halving. At $2.69, the price slightly rebounded and stabilized at $2.80, keeping that level until November 2015, when Bitcoin’s rally brought the growth of the market yet again.
The influence of Bitcoin, as well as pre-purchases, had an opposite effect on Litecoin, driving it up well before the halving. However, during the block size cut, the price went down even further, since markets went silent on that day. The chart below shows the decreasing number of transactions done in Litecoin, signifying the “calm after the storm.” Investors bought out their needed LTC supplies for the following quarter and sat out the halving.
Red circle and line present the calming of the market following the tumbledown of the crypto market. Within that period, BTC and LTC lost huge amounts of their values. Thus, once correction was over, it went back to “regular business.” 2019 did not show any significant changes in terms of transactions per day for Litecoin. Thus, it is evident that halving is not much of a concern for traders. At least not right now.
Other analysis might point out 2018 as the year of growth for LTC. However, it is now evident that Bitcoin led the rally, with the block size cut having very little to do with the LTC’s growth. The year 2015 provides important lessons for traders right now. The market might have changed in the meantime but it all depends on LTC holders whether the price will surge this time around.
Importance of Blockchain Development
Another important factor in regards to price predictions is the overall development of the blockchain network. With so many other digital coins working on their network, the LTC team faces quite a bit of competition.
In 2018, Charlie Lee, founding father of Litecoin, decided to sell his LTC holdings and work in the background. Instead, he is working on the adoption of the coin and fought against rumors that he dropped the project. Looking at the Litecoin dev page, the last update came about in May 2019, while future plans include Lightning Network, Atomic Swaps, and privacy functions.
The lightning chain would process transactions off the chain, speeding up the transfer at very low fees. Atomic swaps, on the other hand, would improve swaps between LTC and other coins, which is a pretty neat feature for traders. However, these updates may take time to occur, especially if Bitcoin did not implement them within its blockchain system. They are powerful enough to bring in traders and investors alike, which can only benefit LTC price-wise.
Since LTC is a hard fork of Bitcoin, development efforts with the larger coin can inevitably be copied to Litecoin. As such, many agree that Litecoin needs to follow in the BTC’s footsteps in order to prosper. The bigger coin is a household name in the crypto world, pushing LTC devs to not just copy codes from bitcoin but to also add their own signature.
List: 5 best Litecoin Halving 2019 Price Predictions
Traders should take into account analysis done by pros in the market. Cryptos are tricky assets to deal with as their volatility rate is quite high and frequent. Thus, we made a list of best Litecoin halving price predictions made by crypto trading influencers. You can add these assumptions within your own fundamental (FA) and technical analysis (TA).
1. Brian Kelly - Litecoin Halving Prediction 2019
Director of BK Capital Management LLC., Brian Kelly, took a yearly route for his LTC analysis. Instead of predicting LTC’s price on the day of halving, it predicted a $600 price tag within 2019. He based his assumptions on the Bitcoin’s supposed growth and increased LTC adoption within new exchanges. With the overall market being bullish, he expects that LTC will gain momentum due to its low price per coin.
What makes this particular analysis interesting is that it was given at the end of 2017, when markets were extremely bullish. Now, $600 seems to be very far away from reality, even with a recent bull run.
2. George Tung - Litecoin Halving Prediction 2019
Apart from Brian Kelly, crypto analyst DiPasquale also believes that LTC is in the midst of a bullish run. However, his assumption is much more conservative, going for a prediction of $150 at the end of 2019. Commenting on the situation in the market Forbes, he explained that the resistance level was breached at $125. Thus, LTC has a clear path towards $150 level if Bitcoin’s price holds up at the $7,600 – $8,000 range.
3. Wallet Investor - Litecoin Halving Prediction 2019
There are also analysts that are not that positive regarding the LTC’s long term fortunes. Wallet Investor is one of them, predicting that LTC will drop down in value substantially by 2020. The platform believes that $75 is a realistic price tag, making LTC a bad coin to invest in right now. At the time of the analysis, LTC stood at $129.
4. Trading Beasts - Litecoin Halving Prediction 2019
Apart from Wallet Investor, Trading Beasts joined the group of crypto analysts that think LTC will drop in value. The fear of bearish trends seems to seep into the trading platform, as it provided that maximum price for LTC within August 2019 will be $109.77, a drop of 31% from the current value. However, Trading Beasts added that 2020 will be the year where LTC would regain its price tag, as seen from the table below.
Interestingly, the table provides results that signify that price will keep increasing after the halving. Apparently, it will take quite a bit of time to get there, as price from June 2020 shows.
5. Captain Altcoin - Litecoin Halving Prediction 2019
The prediction of Captain Altcoin does not exactly name price minimums and maximums like others do but commentary provides useful insights. Crypto analyst group stated that Litecoin lacks usefulness when compared to other blockchain projects. Additionally, it heavily relies on Bitcoin in terms of its value growth. Thus, if Bitcoin rises – it will rise.
At the same time, Captain Altcoin did predict that LTC will be traded sideways during 2019, even with the impending block size halving.
Conclusion - LTC price predictions
It seems that most analysts took a negative stance on Litecoins performance during the halving period. Most point out the 2015 trend as a backbone of their analysis. Additionally, the lack of competitiveness that Litecoin shows can really hurt the digital coin and lower its value in the long term. Thus, it is important to look at current trends, two months before the halving occurs.
Since the start of 2019, it seems that Bitcoin did influence LTC in terms of its value growth. The crypto grew from $31 at the beginning of the year to current $128, mainly due to the BTC’s recent run. The chart below shows just how close LTC is following the market leader. Current market predictions of Bitcoin vary from analyst to analyst. However, one thing does catch the eye – the situation is not the same as it was in 2015.
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